2002-1a: BMD w/ERW in LEO, (parts 1 & 2 combined)
by Robert Kennedy, PE. As originally posted to the Friends & Partners in Space listserver, a rebuttal to Washington Post article by Bradley Graham, “Going Backwards: Nuclear-Tipped Interceptors Studied [subhead] Rumsfeld Revives Rejected Missile Defense Concept” which ran on the front page, Thursday, April 11, 2002.


Rebuttal showed that nuclear-tipped ABM is not only technically feasible, it would be practical, relatively cheap, effective against all target types, and solve the decoy problem (the major issue with present kinetic energy interceptors). This initial order-of-magnitude analysis indicated roughly what an antimissile tipped with a neutron-bomb would look like:


1. mass ~9 tonnes
   
2. length ~10 meters
   
3. diameter ~1 meter
   
4. marginal cost ~$10-30 million/shot
   
5. burnout velocity >5 kilometers per second
   
6. divert velocity >1 km/sec
   
7. warhead mass ~0.5 tonne
   
8. warhead yield ~3 kilotons
   
9. kill radius ~2 kilometer
   
10. effective against nuclear RVs, biologicals, decoys, and penetration aids
    
11. basing: land silos, heavy mobile T/E/Ls, SSBNs
    
(Public)


2002-1b: BMD with ERW in LEO
by Robert Kennedy, PE. Further examination of the feasibility of ballistic missile defense with exoatmospheric interceptors tipped with neutron bombs, with particular attention to the problems of decoys, MIRVing, biological payloads, and EMP, as well as basing modes, stability and confidence under the OST and CTBT regimes.


Further examination showed that nuclear-tipped ABM would be much more cost-effective than present kinetic energy interceptors, would not require new nuclear testing, and would not violate any treaties. A close order of magnitude analysis over the following year yielded a notional design:



for a 2-stage solid-fuelled mobile antimissile (note figure for scale):



tipped with an existing neutron bomb:



based on five separate capabilities already demonstrated by the United States, and only the US, 20-40 years ago:

This notional antimissile would have the following characteristics:


1. mass 4 tonnes
   
2. length <7 meters
   
3. diameter 0.7 meter
   
4. marginal cost $10-20 million/shot
   
5. burnout velocity >7 kilometers per second
   
6. divert velocity 0.7 km/sec
   
7. bus/warhead mass 160 kg
   
8. warhead yield ~2 kilotons
   
9. kill radius ~2 kilometers
   
10. effective against nuclear RVs, biologicals, decoys, and penetration aids
    
11. basing: compatible with Extended VLS cells in ~100 existing naval surface combatants
    
(Public, but in progress. New version coming soon.)

24Apr2002; post original part 1 to FPSpace listserver in response to 11Apr2002 Washington Post article by Bradley Graham, “ Going Backwards...”
24Apr2002; post original part 2 to FPSpace listserver
26Apr2002; post this White Paper to the Web.
18Jun2002; post update to Web.
16Jul2003; public lecture to joint session of Oak Ridge sections of American Nuclear Society, Sigma Xi, American Society of Mechanical Engineers, and Friends of ORNL
18Sep2003 - present; confidential briefings in Washington DC, Woods Hole MA, New York NY, Oak Ridge TN.

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